KEY STATISTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Yahoo Finance or MSN can also be used for free but make sure you cross reference the numbers from time to time as they aren’t always correct. Using Daily Graphs, Vickers, and Weiss can become quite expensive along with the subscription to IBD but we feel they are well worth the investment since they seem to offer the most unbiased, high quality information. As long as all of these tools are justified expenses based on profits from your portfolio, there is no need to worry to spend the extra dollar.

Through our service, we try to produce high quality screens that give you the opportunity to invest for a profit for a minimal charge per month or year. The stocks that make our screens do take dozens of hours per week to assemble and must be updated every week of every year. The stock market is a job, not a hobby as most people in America seem to believe.

Once we feel good about a stock’s fundamentals, it makes a new list to be studied using technical analysis (reading charts). At this point, our founder and president uses his own eyes and charting skills to study the charts.
We don’t have fancy subscriptions or software programs that tell us what stocks to select. Every stock that makes a daily or weekly screen will pass by the eyes of our President several times before it is ever uploaded for your viewing.

We look for:
Properly forming bases
Pivot points
Breakout areas
Extended stocks
Stock pulling back to key support lines.

Finally, when we are about to purchase or sell a stock within our own portfolios, we personally spend many additional hours studying the fundamentals and technicals confirming our beliefs as to why this stock will go up or down.

Our Buying Strategy:
As outlined above, we first we look for solid fundamentals (accelerating earnings, sales and ROE) by using a combination of several screeners on the web to narrow down our list of quality fundamental stocks.

Next we study the charts (technical analysis) and look at every stock screened. We look for stocks forming specific bases or specific up-trends. We pay particular attention to stocks that are poised to move and especially stocks with potential to move quickly.

Please realize that we don’t buy all of the stocks that make the screens, especially the multitude of stocks that have a chance to make the daily screens.

Our buy and sell candidates only come from our final screens each week. Some stocks are bought and then immediately sold if they break down. No one is perfect and mistakes are part of the game when it comes to Wall Street.

One of the biggest, if not the biggest rule for us is to: CUT ALL LOSSES QUICKLY – NO QUESTIONS ASKED!

Insight:
I have been studying the markets for several years now and I have listened to what people before me have said and one thing that has been proved over and over (by studying thousands and thousands of charts) is the fact that stocks making new highs usually go higher. Analyse at any chart that goes from 20-40, 30-60, 60-100, etc… Every time that stock ticked up or seemed to be topping, more support funneled in and propelled the stock even further. Our All-Star list is full of stocks that continue to go higher, even when the untrained investor feels that they are too high.

One fact caught my attention, a fact that is repeated by some of Wall Street’s greatest such as Jesse Livermore, Gerald Loeb, Nicholas Darvas and William O’Neil: “buy high and sell higher”. As I continue to invest, study and read, I realize that stocks showing strength will usually continue to show strength until the environment changes.

This led me to develop the screens and made me focus on the specific stocks that started to show up in my screens several nights per week and multiple weeks at a time. When I started to see stocks over and over, it was a simple signal to check deeper. Most of the time, the charts would show great potential so I would buy.

I suggest all members of our organization to screens stocks all week long using our screens and your own and then to develop an end of the week screen narrowing down a list to the highest quality stocks using both fundamental and technical analysis.

In order for this method to work, the “M” in CANSLIM is the MOST important aspect to your success. For those of you not familiar with CANSLIM, the M stands for market health, if the market is bad, DON’T BUY (We don’t buy). No matter how good the fundamentals and technical, stocks have a high risk of failure during weak markets. If you don’t learn this lesson now, you will be taught by the market some day and it will sting, especially your wallet.

We don’t discriminate when a stock makes our screens; we include every qualifying stock that makes our daily screen, even if we personally don’t like the company. Emotions must be tossed out the window and facts must be the only aspect analyzed, even if you don’t like the product. We don’t like insurance stocks and feel reluctant to post them when they make our screens but then we would be cheating ourselves and community members – How do we know they won’t be the leaders?

Sometimes, groups such as insurance will bring down our overall screening results but not our actual portfolio results, as we would never buy them in real life. They exist only in our research. When we see groups like this (Insurance) rise to the top of our screens, it warns us that a correction may be coming and we start to look for sell signals on our own stocks and head for the sidelines if we are forced to sell.

Keep in mind, our system works best in bull markets while we urge our members to play it safe during sideways markets. Please read over our Philosophy and Education Page and the Technical Analysis Sections to see our system in action. Our weekly updated Case studies will allow you to learn in real time as we post specific stocks that are on our screens at the current time.

Below is a recap of some key categories to use when looking for a stock to purchase or sell. We separated it into two lists between fundamental and technical analysis:

Key statistics to use in fundamentals:
Earnings (current, past: quarterly, yearly and future estimates)
Sales (current, past: quarterly, yearly and future estimates)
Return on Equity (ROE)
Price/Earnings Growth (PEG)
Price/Earnings Ratio (rise over time of base)
Debt/Equity
Assets, Liabilities
Accumulation/Distribution ratio
Up/Down Volume over past several months
Number of Institutional Holders (is this increasing or decreasing recently)

Key things to use for technical analysis:
– Look at the 1 year daily chart
– The 1 year weekly chart
– Check volume action when bases are formed
– Look at Point & Figure charts for support and resistance lines
– Look for new 52-week highs

BUYING AND SCREENING STRATEGY

We use both daily and weekly screens to provide members with possible investment opportunities. While they may seem equal in weight, the weekly screen is the most important feature on the website. Daily screens look at the current day’s action and screen out stocks that are making new 52-week highs, building solid patterns or are breaking out from a pivot point. Stock that have already broken out or have made past daily and weekly screens can continue to make the daily screen even if it sits above the pivot point. We must continue to track quality stocks as they pass crucial buy points because many members decided to place positions in these stocks. Daily screens have the tendency to present many different stocks but only the best of these stocks will go on to make a weekly screen.

Our weekly screens serve as a filter to the “noise” that daily screens may and can produce. As noted in many places on this site, the strongest buy candidates are the stocks that make continuous weekly screens. Below, we have outlined the details process that goes into our buying strategy and our daily and weekly screens. First we will outline the process that we use to make both a daily and weekly screen. Further down the page, we explain how the buying strategy works, based on the information that we extract using the screens. We advise all members to use our process as a guideline to develop your own system that compliments your trading style, whether that be short term, longer term or a combination of both.

Daily and Weekly Screen Details:
One big secret goes into our screening methods: There is no secret and anyone can succeed to build a profitable system. In today’s world, the internet is overloaded with financial information related to companies and their stocks. The toughest part of researching the stock market is weeding through pages of unnecessary data offered by multiple people, blogs, investors, firms and institutions. Open a browser and type the words “stock market” into Google and you will get approximately 34,000,000 results. Now type in the words “stock analysis” and you will get over 14 million responses. Where is one to begin?

All investors must start their search by looking for stocks with superior fundamentals. After fundamentals are established, look to see if this particular stock is in good company and by this I mean a strong industry group. Similar stocks historically move in the same direction (this is fact not opinion). This is not to say that every stock in the industry group will move higher or lower because a sister stock is going in that direction (a generalization rule of course). After the industry group has been confirmed strong or weak, determine if the overall market is in a specific trend (up, down or sideways).

To complete the steps above, we start by using the custom screen wizard offered through Daily Graphs (an affiliate company of IBD). Using this screen, we narrow down our first list using relative strength (RS) and earnings per share (EPS) ratings. In poor or down trending markets, we cut out all stocks that have an RS and EPS rating lower than 70 (based on the IBD scale of 1-99). In up-trending or bull markets, we raise the minimum criteria to 75 and then to 80 for both RS and EPS ratings. Our next step is to eliminate all stocks that are not within 5% of their 52 week highs. We don’t like to invest in stocks that contain great amount of possible overhead resistance. After this list is developed, we run another screen that gives us the stocks with superior RS and EPS ratings that are making new 52-week highs. Finally, we use Investors Business Daily (the print newspaper) and/or our Daily Graphs subscription and locate the strongest industry groups and sectors for the day. Remember that the strongest stocks move in groups, not individually.

By performing the tasks above, we will get a list of about 50-150 stocks that meet the proper fundamental criteria during poor markets or sideways markets. During bull markets, these screens will return several hundred stocks to almost 1000 stocks per day. This is one of the most powerful indicators in the market today, a method that we have used since day one. When 1000 stocks are making these daily screens, we know we are in the midst of a strong bull market. On the other hand, when we see less than 100 stocks making this daily screens, we know that we are going sideways, in a correction or heading towards a bear market.

When we publish the daily screens Monday through Thursday, using the tools above is as far as we go with the initial fundamental criteria. When the week draws to a close and we start to produce a weekly screen, our most important screen, we take the fundamental analysis one step further by studying the raw numbers (key categories are listed at the bottom of this page).

We use some key statistical sites such as Vickers research reports to assess institutional holdings and insider buying. Daily Graphs can be used for these institutional numbers but we prefer Vickers because it allows us to see the exact money manager or mutual fund that owns the stock with the exact amount of shares owned, when they were purchased, the percentage of their total portfolio and more. We then browse over detailed fundamental reports that contain key ratios.

Ratios:
Net income
Past earnings
Future estimated earnings
Revenues

Additional key numbers:
ROE
PEG ratio
EPS estimates
Valuations
Revenues (cross referencing the numbers from Vickers)

Final Fundamental Analysis:
Shares outstanding
Current float
52-week ranges
Previous year highs and lows
Cash-flow
Assets
Profit margins